Incident reconstruction

When there are multiple different versions of a major incident or ambiguities then a suggested methodology to proceed, is incident reconstruction. This method is based on the criminal investigation methodology of crime reconstruction. This is a type of crime scene investigation with the other methods being profiling, psychological autopsy or equivocal death analysis.

• Profiling is an educated attempt to provide investigators with specific information about the type of individual who committed a certain crime.
• Psychological autopsy is a procedure for investigating a person's death by reconstructing what the person thought, felt, and did preceding his or her death.
• Equivocal death analysis is used when the manner of death is open to question.
• Reconstruction involves the use of scientific method, logical reasoning, information, experience and skill to interpret a crime. It about determining the most probable sequence of events. Reconstruction begins when the investigator conducts a walk-through ("feeling out") of the crime scene, simulating the events that may have happened in their minds. They are attempting to prove and disprove any sequence of events that may have happened.

Compared to crime reconstruction, the other methods are less likely to be useful in incident investigations. The following terms are used in investigations

• Deduction is the process of reasoning that starts with a generalization or premise and then considers the logical consequences of any particulars that follow.
• Induction is the process of reasoning where experience, skill, and observation are applied to the particulars of a case and a conclusion or generalization is drawn
• Abduction is the process of cycling through both inductive and deductive reasoning by adding known facts until one is able to reject or retain a hypothesis.
• Taxonomy is the process of arranging known facts into mutually exclusive categories.
• Synthesis is the process of combining separate parts or elements.
• Analysis is the process of starting with the whole and breaking it down into its separate parts.
• A hypothesis is a tentative assertion subject to verification or falsification. A theory is a somewhat verified hypothesis.
• Serendipity is the factor of chance or luck.

Problems with deduction:

• Reducio ad absurdums: A logical error is made as contradictions exist in the reasoning for different inferences.
• A tautology (circular reasoning), is when the conclusion is taken as true no matter what the facts.
• Eqivalent thoughts: Incorrect negative deduction.
• Emotional reasoning: This is using personal bias in your reasoning.
• Denying the antecedent: This is using a true premise to produce a false conclusion.

Problems with induction

• Quick generalization. This is making an incorrect generalization on the basis of too small a sample.
• Post hoc, ergo propter hoc (After this, therefore because of this): It is a mistake to reason from the fact that B followed A in some particular instance, that A is probably the cause of B.
• Emotional reasoning: Specific words and their meanings are being used to persuade.
• The fallacy of composition: This is the mistake of inferring that a property of the parts must also be a property of the whole.
• False dilemma:A false dilemma exists when you must choose between two undesirable alternatives, and make the choice of the least undesirable alternative. Typically a true third alternative usually exsists.

The incident reconstruction is a combination of two previously discussed topics: the crime scene and the eyeball. The investigator of the problem or major incident needs to get a feel of what happened and this includes a simulated walk through of the sequence of events.

This is based on this reference here.